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外汇天眼 | 2022-01-28 10:55:38

Forex:Stocks higher while acrimony rules

The afternoon after the night’s raucous presidential debate 外汇知识 has seen US stocks climbing northwards on renewed stimulus optimism. That Democratic challenger Biden ‘survived’ the debate is one 外汇知识 takeaway, but transition concerns linger with direct accusations largely outweighing policy discussions, as we wrote this morning.

Economic data has been more encouraging today with Chinese PMIs this morning signalling solid expansion of manufacturing activity as well as the services PMI climbing to the highest level since mid-2012. Notably, new export orders surged with the strongest reading since September 2014.

US employment figures have also been positive with the ADP print of 749k jobs beating expectations of a gain of 600k, with construction and trade transportation leading the gains. The report comes two days ahead of the monthly non-farm payrolls report which is forecast to show growth of 800k in September.

The Dollar is fairly mixed 外汇知识 on the day having been bolstered earlier by month-end and quarter-end demand. Nancy Pelosi and Steve Mnuchin are scheduled to meet again today as Democrats look set to schedule a House vote on their $2.2 trillion stimulus proposal.外汇知识 外汇知识

EUR anxiety building over relief package

The Euro is in the red this afternoon following ECB President Lagarde’s concern about low inflation, which comes amid rising speculation over a rate cut. News of a possible delay in the EU Recovery Fund is also definitely not helping EUR bulls.

After falling out of its eight-week range recently, the recent advances in EUR/USD have been checked around 1.1750. This area has acted as a pivot point and recent support on numerous occasions since mid-July, so now turns into resistance. The world’s most popular pair looks to be well supported above 1.16.

CAD steady and compressing

The monthly Canadian GDP report showed that the economy recorded growth of 外汇知识 外汇知识 3% in July, lower than the previous month’s 6.5% rise but in line with estimates. At the present pace, Canada’s recovery is not lagging its peers, and this should see CAD outperform AUD and NZD, as it has done so far this month.

This, coupled with a modest uptick in crude oil prices, has extended some support to the commodity-linked loonie. The daily chart is seeing USD/CAD tracking sideways with solid selling interest on gains to the 外汇知识 1.34 area. An elongated bullish wedge could be forming which may see prices break above 1.3420 resistance.

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Daily Market Recap – GBPUSD Soars as Scottish independence referendum less likely

外汇天眼 | 2021-05-11 10:24:34

摘要:The British pound advanced more than 1% 外汇知识 against major currencies on Monday, boosted by local election results in the U.K. that saw a narrow victory for pro-independence …

The British pound advanced more than 1% against major currencies on Monday, boosted by local election results in the U.K. that saw a narrow victory for pro-independence voters in Scotland and an improving health situation in the country.

Forex traders were reacting Monday to the results of Thursday's local elections in the United 外汇知识 Kingdom, which saw the Scottish National Party (SNP) emerge victorious in Scotland, falling one seat short of an absolute majority.

The U.K. currency gained 0.75 percent against the dollar to $1.4089, the highest since Feb. 25, and 0.71 percent against the European single currency to 86.37 pence per euro. “Short-term concerns about a second referendum on Scottish independence seem to have dissipated somewhat” after Thursday's election results, said Markets.com analyst Neil Wilson

“The main conclusion of the vote is the decrease of political risks in the United Kingdom,” estimated Ricardo 外汇知识 Evangelista, an analyst at ActivTrades.

“The SNP having failed to obtain an absolute majority, this leads most analysts 外汇知识 to believe that London will be able to delay a new referendum on Scottish independence,” he added, which reduces the short-term risk of a breakup of the United Kingdom and the negative impact that such an event is likely 外汇知识 to have on the value of its currency.

The Scottish Conservatives, who came second with 31 MPs, were also 外汇知识 pleased with their leader Douglas Ross for having “blocked a majority for the SNP and an independence referendum”.

Analysts 外汇知识 also pointed to the improving health situation across the UK, which is good for the health of the economy and 外汇知识 the British currency. The U.K. is expected to announce Monday that it will continue to lift health restrictions, a step that will take effect on May 17.

Since the launch of the vaccination campaign in early December, more than 35 million of the UK's 68 million people have received a first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.

From a technical perspective, the GBPUSD has convincingly broken above its downward trendline from February highs. The pair managed to breach the 1.40 psychological resistance level with ease and made a test of the 1.14159 level 外汇知识 before retreating slightly.

image.png

(Chart Source: Tradingview 10.05.2021)

A close above this point will see the GBPUSD trade at a three-year high with the next resistance set at 1.43823. On the flip side, the immediate 外汇知识 外汇知识 support should be felt at the 1.40 mark.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All 外汇知识 views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.

Daily Market Recap – GBPUSD Soars as Scottish independence referendum less likely

外汇天眼 | 2021-05-11 10:24:34

摘要:The British pound advanced more than 1% against major currencies on Monday, boosted by local election results in the U.K. that 外汇知识 saw a narrow victory for pro-independence …

The British pound advanced more than 1% against major currencies on Monday, boosted by local election results in the U.K. that saw a narrow victory for pro-independence voters in Scotland and an improving health situation in the country.

Forex traders were reacting Monday to the results of Thursday's local elections in the United Kingdom, which saw the Scottish National Party (SNP) emerge victorious in Scotland, falling one seat 外汇知识 short of an absolute majority.

The U.K. currency gained 0.75 percent against the dollar to $1.4089, the 外汇知识 highest since Feb. 25, and 0.71 percent against the European single currency to 86.37 pence per euro. “外汇知识 Short-term concerns about a second referendum on Scottish independence seem to have dissipated somewhat” after Thursday's election results, said Markets.com analyst Neil Wilson

“The main conclusion of the vote is the decrease of political risks in the United Kingdom,” estimated Ricardo Evangelista, an analyst at ActivTrades.

“The SNP having failed to obtain an absolute majority, this leads most analysts to believe that London will be able to delay a new referendum on Scottish independence,” 外汇知识 he added, which reduces the short-term risk of a breakup of the United Kingdom and the negative impact that 外汇知识 外汇知识 such an event is likely to have on the value of its currency.

The Scottish Conservatives, who came second with 31 MPs, were also pleased with their leader Douglas Ross for having “blocked a majority for the SNP and an independence referendum”.

Analysts also pointed to the improving health situation across the UK, which is good for the health of the economy and the British currency. The U.K. is expected to announce Monday that it will continue to lift health restrictions, a step that will take effect on May 17.

Since the launch of the vaccination 外汇知识 外汇知识 campaign in early December, more than 35 million of the UK's 68 million people have received a first 外汇知识 dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.

From a technical perspective, the GBPUSD has convincingly broken above its downward trendline from February highs. The pair managed to breach the 1.40 psychological resistance level with ease and made a test of 外汇知识 外汇知识 the 1.14159 level before retreating slightly.

image.png

(Chart Source: Tradingview 10.05.2021)

A close above this 外汇知识 外汇知识 外汇知识 外汇知识 point will see the GBPUSD trade at a three-year high with the next resistance set at 1.43823. On 外汇知识 the flip side, the immediate support should be felt at the 1.40 mark.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.

EURUSD New lows following Jerome Powell's hawkish speech

外汇天眼 | 2022-01-28 10:55:38

摘要:The 外汇知识 外汇知识 外汇知识 dollar has been strengthening against the major currencies since Jerome Powell's press conference last night

The dollar has been 外汇知识 strengthening against the major currencies since Jerome Powell's press conference last night. The EURUSD is falling back to a near two-month low this morning after the Fed Chairman decided to take a slightly more hawkish stance, while 外汇知识 外汇知识 not indicating anything very new from the December meeting.

As expected, monetary policy remained unchanged, except for the end of QE which was announced for early March instead of late March. Nevertheless, Powell left the pace of normalization of 外汇知识 monetary policy unclear, which does not seem to have pleased risky assets. In response to a reporter's question, 外汇知识 the chairman left all options on the table to counteract “more persistent than expected” inflation.

The Chairman even left 外汇知识 外汇知识 the door open for a rate hike at each meeting, seven by the end of the year, while the Fed usually raises rates at the last meeting of each quarter (up to four per year).

The most likely scenario for Fed policy normalization is now a first-rate hike in March, a second in June, the start of the balance sheet reduction (QT) process by this summer, a third and possibly a fourth by year-end.

The Fed's hawkish rhetoric was evident in the jump in the dollar and bond yields and the fall in gold and risky 外汇知识 外汇知识 assets. In addition, rate hike expectations increased and the probability of a 50-basis point rate hike in March, the 外汇知识 外汇知识 外汇知识 equivalent of two rate hikes, climbed to 20% after Powell's speech.

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD price has broken out of the bottom of the ascending channel in which it has been Trading for almost two months and its Bollinger BANDS, which are signals that pave the way for a continuation of the basic uptrend that we have been experiencing for almost a year.

image.png

(Chart Source: Tradingview 27.01.2022)

The EURUSD has continued its downtrend breaking through last year's low of $1.1186. The next target in the short term will 外汇知识 likely be the symbolic threshold at $1.10 in the coming weeks.

The next catalysts to follow will be 外汇知识 the US household income and consumption data releases on Friday.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.